Availability Heuristic

Cognitive Control

If you can easily remember it, you think it happens more often. A mental shortcut where you judge probability based on how easily examples come to mind. Dramatic events (market crashes, 10x winners) are easy to remember, so you overestimate their likelihood. Example: You remember that one stock that went up 500% after a CEO tweet. Now every time there's a positive tweet, you expect the same result. But for every 500% winner, there are 100 stocks that barely moved.